Well MMO-Championrecently said that Cataclysm would be releasing on Nov 2nd.  They tend to have a ton of sources andwhen they say some things they tend to be right. This doesn’t mean that Blizzard won’t push it back at all but I think the date is fairly solid. One big prognosticator of this is  Patch 4.01 is on the PTR. Thats a pretty good indicator that it’s nearing the release or the pre-release world events to come pretty soon. In the past they have had some events leading up to the releases. Before Burning Crusade they had the portal there with some quest givers, as some sort of fight for the portal etc. That was kinda cool in the way that you did a few fun quests and then got a tabard. Sure it did nothing (IIRC) but the quests were kinda good and it was the 1st expansion so it was a huge thing we were working up to. Right before the Lich King release we had the dreaded zombie invasion. For whatever reason (I might have just gone inactive kinda like I am now.. burnt out by the lul before the expansions) I didn’t get involved much with that event.

   This time some of the events have already started. I guess it’s safe to call the retaking of Gnomeregan and the Echo Isles as “world events”. Again b/c of work and the dastarly NHL 11 release last week, I haven’t played much WoW at all so I cannot comment on these events. I might get into game sometime this week off and play the Gnomeregan part some but it will have to be before tuesday. Mainly b/c tuesday is the Civilization V release date and basically, that’s going to be taking up all my gaming time for a while. I am pretty sure they will be having some other big events planned for the time right before the release, such as massive earth quakes in game maybe some sort of other invasion etc. They always also release some of the things, like new talent trees, before the release as well. This prolly helps guys get acclimated and they can get some balance feedback as well. And it helps them keep everyone happy with some sort of “content” before the real release.

So who scores with this release date? Who are the losers here? Well there are probably more winners then losers.  The players obviously are the winners. All of us want it and want it now. Let’s face it. I have been bitching about this for a few months now, but it has been a while. For casuals WoW:WLK is stale and old. Most of the masses haven’t killed Arthas and also just won’t any time soon. We don’t raid 4 hours a night 2-3 nights a week. We are still outfitted with mostly Tier 10 gear but just haven’t made the plunge into ICC 10(+) for one reason or another. So chances are those people have grown tire of the content. They have moved on. Blizzcould be a loser in the short term here b/c chances are many of those have stopped paying for the game until the expansion is released. Yet, they will always come back in droves. With this type of leak of info the players are winners. IT’sonly a month and a half until this date andI tend to believe it. (I do to think of Nov 4th b/c I think they like Thursdays personally but that’s me).

   Another winner is Blizz-con and the attendees. This sets up nicely for the convention b/c its roughly 1-2 weeks before this release. This means they don’t have to do TOO much content during the con, but they can still slip in 1-2 big reveals about it. They can also do the pre-release events and have cpu’s set up in the convention center for the people to play the game and people will eat it up. This could also open the door for the usual OTHER big non WoW announcements at Blizzcon. The obvious Diablo 3 announcement and (I hope) the top secret MMO announcement we are all praying for at Blizzcon.

   And what about the stock holders? Yes as usual here we as share-holders will be happy with the 4th quarter results. Typically every year Activision/Blizzard has a nice spike in the 4th quarter to help it all look peachy. This year, we will have that 3rd quarter (Starcraft) as well as the 4th (Cataclysm). This should look good in the books for sure.

   And all of us cannot forget the retailers. They will be happy as well. They get their midnight release parties and they get to make boo-coo bucks on this release too. However, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they make a lot more digital distribution this year. Steam, Direct 2 Drive or some others. More and more developers are using this as a way to cut costs so it’s definitely possible Blizzard jumps on board. Even with this there will be plenty of us out there who just want the disc in hand, and plenty others who will pre-order and get the collector’s edition box as well.

Ok who are the big losers here? Basically anyone else planning on releasing a game in the general time frame as Cataclysm. Sure, it’s entirely possible that console releases won’t feel too much sales decreases from this CPU mega-monster, but I bet some of them will feel it at least a little. More likely they will see a delay of sales until the Black-Friday and Christmas rushes. The ones I am looking at to take the biggest hits are the MMO’s being released near this date. There are 3 big releases I can pinpoint in the next 2 months (other then the proposed WoW release). These 3 are Final Fantasy XIV, Lego Universe Online, and DC Universe Online.

   Of these 3 releases the one I see taking the biggest hit is DCUO. It’s already got so much of a secrecy to it all and not a whole lot of game play has been seen yet to get some hype started. I think more people will be likely to jump back into WoW then to start off in a new MMO they have very little idea about. The other two are more niche games with their own fan bases.  FF XIV has it’s own small rabid fan base that will follow it to the depths of hell so those loyal ones will likely play it anyway. But being it is slated to come out end of Sept, it might get some newer players into it but it will not keep the majority of them for long when Cataclysm comes out. Lego UO is kinda in the same vein. It will appeal to the younger demographic so it will get that group and some families but this is likely to be a micro-transaction game so I bet most people will play this and WoW so it shouldn’t hurt either much, if at all.

   DCUO has the most to lose here. It’s trying desperately to make a name for itself and carve out it’s little corner of the MMO market.  It’s more then likely to be a montly sub game, at prolly the same 15$ per month that WoW is. This could lead to a lot of people having to make the one or the other decision on DC vs WoW. And guess who wins? Even the GeekJock who is a HUGE DC comics guy myself, will be choosing WoW over the new MMO and waiting to see the early reviews of DCUO.  I do have a slight idea that if the Nov 2nd release date is kept I wouldn’t be totally surprised if DCUO pushes back their release a month or so to try and get the Christmas rush sales, and also to give some of the hardcore gamers their month of craming WoW in to get tired of it (at least they hope) and then come to DCUO. In either event I am still hoping DCUO is a good game b/c I really want to play it eventually.

   On a personal note I am going to add myself as a winner for a couple of reasons. First it gives me about a month and a half to play the hell out of Civ V. This is perfect amount to time toplay the hell out of the game and then want to get something else going. I am sure I will be playing Civ V for a LONG time anyway but at least I will have some exclusive time with it. And like I mentioned above I just want a reason to get back into WoW, b/c leveling alt’s is just old.

So there you have it. I am hoping the info from MMO-Champion is good info, b/c it generally is, but mostly b/c I want to play Cataclysm as soon as possible.

What about you ? What are your thoughts both on the Date and if you will play it or can you even wait 45 more days?

GJ

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